Modelling COVID-19 effect on the performance of MENA Health-care sector

PurposeThis study models the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of the private health-care sector in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. This paper aims to address the economic, societal and sustainability of the health-care sector.Design/methodology/approachData were collected from Bloomberg and the sample consists of 534 firm-year observations from 55 firms listed over 2010–2020. The authors apply panel data and control for the country and governance effects.FindingsThe authors found heterogeneous results regarding the three sub-sectors. The pandemic has a negative effect on the accounting and market performances of the "Pharmaceutical companies” and an insignificant impact on "Healthcare Management and Facilities Services.” Moreover, the impact of COVID-19 on health-care firms' performance depends on the country's economic classification and the degree of regulatory and governance frameworks.Research limitations/implicationsFurther studies may consider a larger sample and other regions. It is recommended to address the health-care sector's challenges to invest in new technologies such as "digital twin” and predictive and personalized medicine. It is worth testing model development theory and its effects on speeding up and designing models to ensure the proper functioning and developing mathematics to determine uncertainties in patient data and model predictions.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper is novel as it is unique in modeling the impact of COVID-19 on the health-care public companies in the MENA region. The findings pinpoint firms' and countries' heterogeneous impacts on financial and market performances.

Hedging and safe haven properties of Ethereum: evidence around crises

Given the broad scope of Ethereum and the wide range of its decentralized applications, this paper investigates its hedging and safe haven capabilities against main fiat currencies, stock and bond indices in the US and Europe, and crude oil and gold markets. We use daily data from January 2016 until February 2021 and apply percentile regressions and crisis event interaction analysis by selecting four worldwide events including US presidential elections, the Brexit referendum, and COVID-19. We reveal that Ethereum does not act as a hedge or a safe haven against fiat currencies, stock and bond indices, and gold. However, it does act as a strong safe haven against crude oil in calm and turbulent periods and against European bonds during market turbulence. The study provides insights to regulators and investors into the potential role of Ethereum in investment decision-making and protecting financial market participants in the US and EU.

Volatility Interdependence Between Cryptocurrencies, Equity, and Bond Markets.

This paper investigates (i) the return-volatility spillover between Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Litecoin, (ii) the interdependence between cryptocurrencies' volatility and the US equity and bond markets' volatility, and (iii) the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on the cryptocurrencies' return-volatility. A two-step estimation approach is considered where Univariate General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic models are estimated to model the volatility of the four cryptocurrencies then a Simultaneous Equation Model is estimated to model the interconnection between the cryptocurrency volatilities, the US equity and bond markets' volatility, and Covid-19 outbreak. We show that return-volatility spillovers exist among Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin while Ripple is the main transmitter of shocks. We find that the cryptocurrency market is detached from the US stock market but not from the US bond market. Finally, we show that a high economic and financial uncertainty in the US stock market due to pandemic outbreaks affects the price of Litecoin, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. However, shocks are short-lived. Our findings have practical implications; as the evidence of volatility spillovers among cryptocurrencies and their relative isolation from the majority of mainstream assets should be factored into the valuation and portfolio diversification strategies of investors. In crisis times such as those induced by Covid-19, investors who seek protection from downward movements in bond markets could benefit from taking a position in Ethereum. Policymakers can also rely on our findings to time their intervention to stabilize markets and control uncertainties inherent to stressful periods.

The Size of Good and Bad Volatility Shocks Does Matter for Spillovers

Based on the rationale that the propagation of stock volatility shocks within the system can be affected by the size of shocks, we apply a tail-based approach of spillovers based on the variance decomposition of a quantile vector autoregression model. The analysis involves the decomposition of the realized variance into positive and negative realized semivariances using 5-min data on six major stock market indices from the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, China, and India for the period February 14, 2000 - September 30, 2021. The results show that the propagation of volatility shocks within the system is not only shaped by the sign of the shocks (e.g., good versus bad volatility) but also by the shock size. For each good and bad volatility spillover, we detect a heterogeneity resulting from the difference in the size of spillovers between the upper and middle quantiles and thus reveal a relative intensity effect, as measured by the Relative Intensity of Shock Spillover (RISS) measure that we propose herein. This points to the necessity to go beyond studying spillovers of average shocks and employ tail-based models capable of uncovering the heterogeneous and intensity effects of the shock size. Otherwise, these features will remain hidden, leading to suboptimal inferences and policy implications.

Exploring the performance of responsible companies in G20 during the COVID-19 outbreak.

An uphill question of whether Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) directly impact firms' financial performance (FP) continues to vacillate between two opponent streams. In the present study, we argue that COVID-19 is an extreme event where the effect of ESG sharply manifests. We rely on cross-sectional data in the context of G20 countries for the year 2020. To avoid biased results due to governments support, we integrate four novel metrics provided by the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). We run sequential regressions (OLS; and quartiles to account for the Ingrained Income Bias (IIB) and ESG scores). We also perform robustness tests and account for the interaction between ESG and cash level. Our models were subsequently replicated for each ESG pillar. Findings indicate that ESG is beneficial during COVID-19, but the reward appears to be closely tied up to specific aspects of ESG, income level, and firm-specific variables. Results contribute to the burgeoning literature on ESG during COVID-19 by reflecting on firms' key attributes and the preponderance of government support.